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If Russia Wins by Carlo Masala

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If Russia Wins

A Scenario

Carlo Masala, Olena Ebel, Ruth Ahmedzai Kemp

Grove/Atlantic · Print & ebook · January 16, 2026

Reading lane: Diplomacy

A New Statesman Book of the Year A #1 international bestseller from a NATO expert, this deeply researched and chillingly plausible scenario imagines what might happen should Putin defeat Ukraine and not stop there March 2028.

At a Glance

Who It's For

Good for readers who enjoy DiplomacyGood for fans of PoliticsGood for readers who enjoy Diplomacy and Post-Soviet Russia.

Book Details

Authors
Carlo Masala, Olena Ebel, Ruth Ahmedzai Kemp
Publisher
Grove/Atlantic
Published
January 16, 2026
Format
Print & ebook
Theme
Diplomacy · Post-Soviet Russia
Reading lane
Diplomacy

Affinity

Publisher Categories

  • Diplomacy

  • Security Studies

  • Geopolitics

About This Book

A New Statesman Book of the Year A #1 international bestseller from a NATO expert, this deeply researched and chillingly plausible scenario imagines what might happen should Putin defeat Ukraine and not stop there March 2028. Russian troops capture the small Estonian town of Narva and the island of Hiiumaa in the Baltic Sea. After a victorious peace deal in Ukraine, Putin’s long-mooted encroachment into the Baltic states has begun. What if Ukraine was only the beginning? Wha...

Read full description

A New Statesman Book of the Year A #1 international bestseller from a NATO expert, this deeply researched and chillingly plausible scenario imagines what might happen should Putin defeat Ukraine and not stop there March 2028. Russian troops capture the small Estonian town of Narva and the island of Hiiumaa in the Baltic Sea. After a victorious peace deal in Ukraine, Putin’s long-mooted encroachment into the Baltic states has begun. What if Ukraine was only the beginning? What will the NATO alliance decide? Will they risk nuclear war? Day by day and hour by hour, renowned political scientist Carlo Masala plays out what might happen when the President of the United States is called on to uphold NATO’s commitment to mutual defense, just as China’s maneuvers in Asia provide Russia with the perfect cover. A timely, gripping, and thought-provoking scenario, If Russia Wins shows how our world order is poised on a knife-edge. In the United States, we are accustomed to everything working out in our favor, in the end. But what if it doesn’t?

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