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He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence? “Witty, lively, and best of all, extremely nerdy” (Tim Harford, author of The Undercover Economist ), Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining and accessible illustration of how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.","forthcoming":false,"isbn13":"9781668052631","publication_date":"20250708","publisher":"Atria/One Signal Publishers","slug":"everything-is-predictable","subtitle":"How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World","title":"Everything Is Predictable"},"discovery":{"categories":{"all":[{"bisac_code":"MAT029010","confidence_band":"medium","label":"Bayesian Analysis","score":0.7791,"source":"bisac_hint_model"},{"bisac_code":"BUS070030","confidence_band":"medium","label":"Tech Industry","score":0.715,"source":"bisac_hint_model"},{"bisac_code":"BUS069030","confidence_band":"medium","label":"Economic Theory","score":0.7078,"source":"bisac_hint_model"}],"hint":[{"bisac_code":"MAT029010","confidence_band":"medium","label":"Bayesian Analysis","score":0.7791,"source":"bisac_hint_model"},{"bisac_code":"BUS070030","confidence_band":"medium","label":"Tech Industry","score":0.715,"source":"bisac_hint_model"},{"bisac_code":"BUS069030","confidence_band":"medium","label":"Economic Theory","score":0.7078,"source":"bisac_hint_model"}],"publisher":[{"bisac_code":"MAT003000","confidence_band":"high","label":"Applied Math","score":1,"source":"onix_publisher_code"},{"bisac_code":"MAT011000","confidence_band":"high","label":"Game Theory","score":1,"source":"onix_publisher_code"},{"bisac_code":"MAT029010","confidence_band":"high","label":"Bayesian Analysis","score":1,"source":"onix_publisher_code"}]},"genres":[{"label":"Bayesian Analysis","score":0.7791,"slug":"bayesian-analysis"},{"label":"Tech Industry","score":0.715,"slug":"tech-industry"},{"label":"Economic Theory","score":0.7078,"slug":"economic-theory"}],"reader_fit":["Readers seeking an accessible introduction to Bayes’s theorem","Readers curious about Bayesian reasoning in medicine, law, and AI"],"related_lists":[],"series":null,"similar_books":[{"authors":["Will Kurt"],"book_id":"9781593279561","cover_image_url":"https://img.bookfrontier.com/9781593279561.jpg?v=c442ae42cc55e743","score":0.7262,"title":"Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way","url":"https://bookfrontier.com/books/9781593279561"},{"authors":["David J Hand"],"book_id":"9780374535001","cover_image_url":"https://img.bookfrontier.com/9780374535001.jpg?v=5b89ee24b625ba1c","score":0.7217,"title":"The Improbability Principle","url":"https://bookfrontier.com/books/9780374535001"},{"authors":["Dan Ariely"],"book_id":"9780061353246","cover_image_url":"https://img.bookfrontier.com/9780061353246.jpg?v=cda4644bb06b93dd","score":0.7091,"title":"Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition","url":"https://bookfrontier.com/books/9780061353246"},{"authors":["Allen Downey"],"book_id":"9781492089469","cover_image_url":"https://img.bookfrontier.com/9781492089469.jpg?v=e6359a7e640a449f","score":0.7063,"title":"Think Bayes","url":"https://bookfrontier.com/books/9781492089469"},{"authors":["Steven Pinker","Fred Sanders","Simon & Schuster Audio"],"book_id":"9781668011577","cover_image_url":"https://img.bookfrontier.com/9781668011577.jpg?v=dc550faf5b646fc8","score":0.6922,"title":"When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows . . .","url":"https://bookfrontier.com/books/9781668011577"},{"authors":["Nassim Nicholas Taleb"],"book_id":"9780812975215","cover_image_url":"https://img.bookfrontier.com/9780812975215.jpg?v=750f562ccfa04cfd","score":0.6867,"title":"Fooled by Randomness","url":"https://bookfrontier.com/books/9780812975215"},{"authors":["Scott E. 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